After President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency in the north-eastern states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, army troop reinforcements have begun arriving in northern cities such as Maiduguri and Yola.

It is a long overdue move and I am surprised it took the President this long to declare a state of emergency. The state of emergency means that the army can take greater responsibility for security in those three states. Troops can occupy city centers, take over buildings, and arrest and detain suspects without trial. Two incidents seemed to have tipped the balance in favour of the state of emergency:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-nigeria-emergency-idUSBRE94E0JC20130515?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637

1) Boko Haram nonchalantly dismissed the President’s offer of an amnesty. By doing so, Boko Haram seemed to declare its intention to settle its scores with the government on the battlefield, rather than via dialogue. It seems that President dialogue is now ready to meet them on a battlefield rather than in a conference room.

2) The recent Baga attacks which left hundreds of people dead marked a new deadly escalation in the conflict with Boko Haram.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/nigeria-emergency-trucks-idINL6N0DW2T120130515

Although Boko Haram has launched attacks across the north and as far south as the capital in Abuja, the three north-eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe in the Kanuri heartland, represent Boko Haram’s support base. It has taken over at least one-third of the local government areas in Borno state. Losing control of its own territory to a terrorist organisation seems to have been the last straw for the government. President Jonathan accused Boko Haram of declaring war against Nigeria.

Excerpts from the President’s national broadcast announcing the state of emergency:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GglRw0urlw

Innocent civilians are likely to be caught in the inevitable shoot-outs between the army and Boko Haram. There are reports that Boko Haram has been forcefully conscripting new members, and threatening them with death if they do not kill in the group’s name within weeks of joining.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/15/nigeria-boko-haram-attacks-military-reprisals

Nonetheless the state of emergency will be popular among the general Nigerian population. Many have accused the President of being weak and of treating Boko Haram with kid gloves. This state of emergency will boost his security credentials and demonstrate a willingness to forcefully confront Boko Haram.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/05/2013514192543867669.html

http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2013/05/nigerian-terror

Even if the troop surge proves successful, it would offer only temporary respite. Boko Haram can easily slip across the border into neighbouring countries, regroup, and return. Only a long term political and economic solution can permanently end Boko Haram’s violent insurgency.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqMw00fcV04

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/nigeria-emergency-trucks-idINL6N0DW2T120130515