The APC has won in 17 of the 28 states where results have been released by INEC so far and Buhari leads Atiku by 3.5 million votes. Keep checking back as I will update this page as results continue to be announced.
#NIGERIADECIDES2019 – ELECTION RESULTS RELEASED BY #INEC SO FAR
AAC – African Action Congress
ADC – African Democratic Congress
ADP – Action Democratic Party
APC – All Progressives Congress
PDP – People’s Democratic Party
SDP – Social Democratic Party
Winning party in bold text
|STATE||PARTY||TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS||TOTAL ACCREDITED VOTERS||TOTAL VOTES CAST||INVALID VOTES|
|Abia||AAC: 212 ADC: 336 ADP: 131 APC: 85,058 PDP: 219,698 SDP: 472||1,793,861||361,561||344,471||21,180|
|Anambra||AAC: 124 ADC: 227 ADP: 427 APC: 33,298 PDP: 524,738 SDP: 932||2,389,332||675,273||625,035||19,301|
|Bauchi||AAC: 183 ADC: 296 ADP: 123 APC: 798,428 PDP: 209,313 SDP: 516||2,453,512||1,075,330||1,061,955||37,648|
|Benue||AAC: 309 ADC: 554 ADP: 312 APC: 347,668 PDP: 356,817 SDP: 4,927||2,391,276||786,069||763,872||34,960|
|Ebonyi||AAC: 205 ADC: 213 ADP: 102 APC: 90,726 PDP: 258,573 SDP: 452||1,392,931||391,747||379,394||20,263|
|Edo||AAC: 3,106 ADC: 850 ADP: 714 APC: 267,842 PDP: 275,691 SDP: 184||2,150,127||604,915||599,228||38,517|
|Ekiti||AAC: 400 ADC: 406 ADP: 126 APC: 219,231 PDP: 154,032 SDP: 48||899,919||395,741||393,709||12,577|
|Enugu||AAC: 219 ADC: 348 ADP: 137 APC: 54,423 PDP: 355,553 SDP: 130||1,935,168||452,765||451,063||30,049|
|FCT||AAC: 583 ADC: 246 ADP: 145 APC: 152,224 PDP: 259,997 SDP: 410
|Gombe||AAC: 165 ADC: 248 ADP: 135 APC: 402,961 PDP: 138,484 SDP: 248||1,385,191||604,240||580,649||26,446|
|Imo||AAC: 467 ADC: 541 ADP: 421 APC: 140,463 PDP: 334,923 SDP: 772||2,037,569||585,741||542,777||31,191|
|Jigawa||AAC: 226 ADC: 261 ADP: 107 APC: 794,738 PDP: 289,895 SDP: 5,011||2,104,889||1,171,801||1,149,922||43,678|
|Kaduna||AAC: 243 ADC: 558 ADP: 227 APC: 993,445 PDP: 649,612 SDP: 1,737||3,861,033||1,757,868||1,709,005||45,402|
APC: 1,464,768 PDP: 391,593 SDP: 635
APC: 1,232,133 PDP: 308,056 SDP: 150
|Kogi||AAC: 250 ADC: 4,369 ADP: 499 APC: 285,894 PDP: 218,207 SDP: 2,226||1,640,449||570,773||553,496||32,480|
|Lagos||AAC: 8,910 ADC: 2,915 ADP: 1,262 APC: 580,825 PDP: 448,015 SDP: 770||6,313,507||1,196,490||1,156,590||67,023|
ADC: 339 ADP: 107 APC: 289,903 PDP: 283,847 SDP: 359
|Niger||AAC: 324 ADC: 588 ADP: 2,582 APC: 612,371 PDP: 218,052 SDP: 239||2,375,568||911,964||896,976||45,039|
|Ogun||AAC: 3,196 ADC: 25,283 ADP: 7,705 APC: 281,762 PDP: 194,655 SDP: 1,374||2,336,887||613,397||605,938||41,682|
|Ondo||AAC: 4,414 ADC: 6,296 ADP: 1,005 APC: 241,769 PDP: 275,901 SDP: 1,618||1,812,567||598,586||586,827||30,833|
|Osun||AAC: 1,022 ADC: 1,525 ADP: 9,057 APC: 347,634 PDP: 337,377 SDP: 259||1,674,729||732,984||731,882||17,200|
|Oyo||AAC: 4,041 ADC: 40,830 ADP: 25,384 APC: 365,229 PDP: 366,690 SDP: 766||2,796,542||905,007||891,080||54,549|
|Plateau||AAC: 268 ADC: 590 ADP: 1,395 APC: 468,555 PDP: 548,665 SDP: 599||2,423,381||1,074,042||1,062,862||28,009|
APC: 324,906 PDP: 374,743 SDP: 862
|Yobe||AAC: 137 ADC: 162 ADP: 107 APC: 497,914 PDP: 50,763 SDP: 180||1,365,913||601,059||586,137||26,772|
Stears Business are doing a wonderful job of tracking the results live here.
You can also follow the results live on Channels TV.
With only 2 days left to Nigeria’s next presidential election this Saturday, the Independent National Electoral Commission has confirmed that 72.7 million of the 84 million Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) have been collected by voters.
One trend in the PVC collected data that helps President Buhari is that the north-west (where he is from) has an extraordinarily high rate of PVC collection. 98% of voters in his home state of Katsina have collected their PVCs. 11 of the 15 states where more than 90% of PVCs have been collected are in the north. That is good news for Buhari.
You can see a state by state breakdown of the number of registered voters and collected PVCs in each state of Nigeria below:
#Nigeria’s next presidential election is only 5 days away. As usual the political temperature has reached boiling point and everyone thinks the entire future of the entire country is at stake. Rather than focus on one aspect of the election, I have compiled below, a compendium of the major issues surrounding the election.
The Key Contenders
Bloomberg has published a comparison of President Buhari and his main challenger Atiku Abubakar. It presents the election as a binary choice between “A Former Dictator or Alleged Kleptocrat“.
Voters and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) -@inecnigeria. There are over 84 million registered voters. The distribution of voters s likely to give President Buhari a slight advantage. The north-west (where Buhari hails from) has over 20 million registered voters, and the south-west (where the Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo is from) has over16 million registered voters. In a country like Nigeria where voters often vote on ethno-regional lines, the fact that 42% of registered voters are located in the regions where the president and vice-president are from will be crucial. This article by Idayat Hassan (@hassanidayat) provides a very good summary of the key issues and demographics.
The Role of Women
The UN has published an article lamenting the depressingly low-level of female representation in Nigerian politics. Nigeria has never had en elected female president or state governor. Only 5 of the 73 presidential candidates are women. There are only 7 women in the 109 member Senate, and only 22 of Nigeria’s 360 federal House of Representatives members are women.
Nigerian elections are not just about those who context for elected office. So called “godfathers” are the unseen hands that sponsor candidates, dictate hands from behind the scenes, and influence the country’s political trajectory. The former Governor of Taraba State Reverend Jolly Nyame, once said: “Whether you like it or not, as a godfather you will not be a governor, you will not be a president, but you can make a governor, you can make a president.”
Further Election Coverage
The BBC’s Africa and Nigeria coverage is usually first class. They have put together a good page on Nigeria’s election here.
The outgoing Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Professor Attehiru Jega was recently a guest of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC. During a talk attended by Jega’s INEC Commissioners and Nigeria’s Ambassador to the United States of America Ambassador Adebowale Ibidapo Adefuye, Jega gave a very eye opening talk about Nigeria’s election landscape and the recently concluded 2015 elections.
Jega said that Nigeria’s electoral laws caused operational problems for INEC. If a presidential election is inconclusive with no clear winner, the Nigerian constitution requires a second run-off election to take place within 7 days of the original election. Prior to the election INEC had recommended that this provision of the constitution should be amended. In other countries the average time to prepare for a run-off is 6 weeks. Jega described the possibility of organizing a run off election in 7 days as “impossible”. A run-off could have caused “a constitutional crisis”. He said he prayed the election would not go to a run off!
INEC did what it could to prepare for the eventuality of a run-off; printing extra ballot papers just in case. Because of fear of being challenged in court, INEC printed extra run-off ballot papers for all parties (even though the law requires that the run-off should take place between only the two top parties).
INEC Key Steps
Giving semblance of impartiality.
Building key partnerships
The permanent voter cards (PVCs) that voters used to vote were made in China.
INEC met quarterly with party chairmen and representatives. Meetings became monthly in the run up to the election.
President Goodluck Jonathan’s Government
Jega said that “Time will come when positive things will be said about Jonathan’s government” – in terms of allowing INEC to be independent. Jega said none of the electoral malpractice or attempts to affect INEC’s independence could be attributed to Jonathan or the government in particular.
The postponement of the presidential election from February to April allowed INEC more time to train more staff and allowed more people to collect their PVCs and vote. As at February 28, tens of millions of PVCs had not been collected.
In February INEC and Jega were invited to the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) Lt-Colonel Sambo Dasuki for a meeting. The meeting was also attended by the military service chiefs Air Chief Marshal Alex Sabundu Badeh (Chief of Defence Staff), Lt-General Kenneth Tobiah Minimah (Chief of Army Staff), Air Marshall Adesola Amosu (Chief of Air Staff), Vice-Admiral Usman Jibrin (Chief of Naval Staff), and the Inspector-General of Police Solomon Arase.
INEC were told that there were compelling reasons to postpone the election. The security chiefs told INEC there was “a window of opportunity” to fight Boko Haram and that their energies would be focused on that fight around the time the election was scheduled. They said that for the first time Nigeria’s neighbors Chad, Cameroon, and Niger were pressing Nigeria to join a Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF); whereas in the past it was Nigeria that was pressing them to join a military coalition, and they foot dragged.The security officers said that joint action against Boko Haram would rob it of the ability to flee for respite to Nigeria’s neighbours. The security chiefs said that the time was opportune because the military had just taken delivery of military weaponry they had ordered before. In conclusion the armed forces could not provide their customary level of security support for this election.
INEC were taken by surprise. Their position was that they were ready for the elections to go ahead as scheduled. INEC asked the service chiefs to undertake consultations and build consensus for their recommendations.
The following day the NSA Dasuki went to Chatham House and recommended a six-week postponement of the election; without consulting INEC. https://maxsiollun.wordpress.com/2015/01/26/nigeria-national-security-adviser-not-very-optimistic-about-chibok-girls/ In the words of Jega “we were shocked” by Dasuki’s speech and candor at Chatham House. Although Dasuki’s Chatham House speech took INEC by surprise, INEC could not publicly contradict the NSA.
The following week Jega and INEC were summoned to a National Council of States (NCS) meeting (also attended by the service chiefs) at which Jega briefed the NCS and told them about the situation (INEC was ready to go ahead with the election as scheduled, but had received security advice to the contrary). Jega also received a letter from the NSA Dasuki (signed by the Chief of Defence Staff Badeh) reiterating the earlier security advice given to INEC. The service chiefs and the NSA reiterated to the NCS that they could not provide security guarantees for the election.
The decision on whether to postpone was deferred to INEC since it was INEC that had the legal mandate to schedule the election. Jega said the discussion at the NCS “took a partisan divide” (with some parties for and against postponement depending on their assessment of whether or not it would benefit them).
INEC called a meeting of its commissioners. Jega considered the safety of its electoral staff and said he “would not put the lives of over 750,000 election workers at risk” by ignoring the security advice. INEC did not want to be blamed for bloodshed if it ignored the security advice and lives were lost. Postponement also offered INEC a silver lining by allowing more people to collect their PVCs and vote, giving them more preparation time, and offered the potential for a genuine and peaceful elections to take place in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States which had been wracked by the Boko Haram insurgency and which were so insecure that it was difficult to envisage how elections could take place in those states.
As at February, INEC had produced 68.95 million out of 69 million PVCs that were supposed to be produced. 67% of people had collected their PVCs. By the time the election took place 56 million PVCs had been collected out of a total of 69 million PVCs (81% of PVCs were collected).
INEC received petition to cancel Rivers State election results on the grounds that fake result sheets were being distributed and that no elections took place at all in certain polling units. Jega said these claims “were spurious”. INEC sent a three man team of its national commissioners to Rivers State to investigate. The commissioners were there for 12 hours and refuted the petition’s allegations.
The “Orubebe incident was unfortunate”. Jega said he has no evidence of further conspiracy regarding Orubebe’s outburst. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/uk-nigeria-election-exclusive-idUKKBN0N71KO20150416
All Jega said is that he “Hope we learned lessons from that and move on…statesmen should be statesmen…we need more role models”.
Jega said Nigerians should not spend so much time in euphoria of the election success, but should also focus on maintaining standards and preventing regression. Said Nigerians “shouldn’t just sit back and gloat about a wonderful election”.
INEC used NYSC cadets as ad-hoc staff. NYSC and security staff did not get to vote because of their election day duties. Jega said they had tried (after 2011 election) to arrange for ad-hoc staff to vote but INEC did not get around to implementing it. Jega said perhaps essential election staff could vote 1 day or 1 week in advance of the public.
INEC piloted an electronic results system in 2011 – using the governorship election in Rivers State as its test case. INEC worried that technology failure or manipulation would taint the election. Result technology had failed in Kenya. INEC felt they already had too much on their hands with the introduction of PVCs and biometric readers. He also said that using an electronic counting system required trust in the technology, and faith it would not be manipulated. Jega said that level of trust does not yet exist in Nigeria’s political system, and that the possibility of technology being manipulated or corrupted, led INEC to count results manually.
Jega gave credit to Jonathan’s government for giving INEC approval and money to implement PVCs and electronic card readers.
Click the link below for my article in the UK Guardian about how President Goodluck Jonathan blunder’s cost him the 2015 Nigerian presidential election.
Getting on the wrong side of Obasanjo is the political equivalent of crossing a mafia don. You will pay.
Excellent info-graphic charts by Voice of America:
An article I wrote for the UK Guardian’s comment is free section.
Two things are virtually certain, no matter who wins. The results will be disputed and there will be litigation (especially if the result is close).