Tag Archives: democracy

#NIGERIADECIDES2019 – ELECTION RESULTS RELEASED BY #INEC SO FAR


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The APC has won in 17 of the 28 states where results have been released by INEC so far and Buhari leads Atiku by 3.5 million votes. Keep checking back as I will update this page as results continue to be announced.

#NIGERIADECIDES2019 – ELECTION RESULTS RELEASED BY #INEC SO FAR

KEY:

AAC – African Action Congress
ADC – African Democratic Congress
ADP – Action Democratic Party
APC – All Progressives Congress
PDP – People’s Democratic Party
SDP – Social Democratic Party

Winning party in bold text

STATE PARTY TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS TOTAL ACCREDITED VOTERS TOTAL VOTES CAST INVALID VOTES
Abia AAC: 212 ADC: 336 ADP: 131 APC: 85,058 PDP: 219,698 SDP: 472 1,793,861 361,561 344,471 21,180
Adamawa  

AAC: 282

ADC: 3,989

ADP: 329

APC: 378,078

PDP: 410,266

SDP: 978

 

1,959,322 874,920 860,756 49,222
Akwa Ibom          
Anambra AAC: 124 ADC: 227 ADP: 427 APC: 33,298 PDP: 524,738 SDP: 932 2,389,332 675,273 625,035 19,301
Bauchi AAC: 183 ADC: 296 ADP: 123 APC: 798,428 PDP: 209,313 SDP: 516 2,453,512 1,075,330 1,061,955 37,648
Bayelsa          
Benue AAC: 309 ADC: 554 ADP: 312 APC: 347,668 PDP: 356,817 SDP: 4,927 2,391,276 786,069 763,872 34,960
Borno          
Cross River          
Delta          
Ebonyi AAC: 205 ADC: 213 ADP: 102 APC: 90,726 PDP: 258,573 SDP: 452 1,392,931 391,747 379,394 20,263
Edo AAC: 3,106 ADC: 850 ADP: 714 APC: 267,842 PDP: 275,691 SDP: 184 2,150,127 604,915 599,228 38,517
Ekiti AAC: 400 ADC: 406 ADP: 126 APC: 219,231 PDP: 154,032 SDP: 48 899,919 395,741 393,709 12,577
Enugu AAC: 219 ADC: 348 ADP: 137 APC: 54,423 PDP: 355,553 SDP: 130 1,935,168 452,765 451,063 30,049
FCT AAC: 583 ADC: 246 ADP: 145 APC: 152,224 PDP: 259,997 SDP: 410

 

1,335,015 467,784 451,408 423,951
Gombe AAC: 165 ADC: 248 ADP: 135 APC: 402,961 PDP: 138,484 SDP: 248 1,385,191 604,240 580,649 26,446
Imo AAC: 467 ADC: 541 ADP: 421 APC: 140,463 PDP: 334,923 SDP: 772 2,037,569 585,741 542,777 31,191
Jigawa AAC: 226 ADC: 261 ADP: 107 APC: 794,738 PDP: 289,895 SDP: 5,011 2,104,889 1,171,801 1,149,922 43,678
Kaduna AAC: 243 ADC: 558 ADP: 227 APC: 993,445 PDP: 649,612 SDP: 1,737 3,861,033 1,757,868 1,709,005 45,402
Kano AAC: 416

ADC: 591

ADP: 439

APC: 1,464,768 PDP: 391,593 SDP: 635

5,391,581 2,006,410 1,964,751 73,617
Katsina AAC: 186
ADC: 237
ADP: 140
APC: 1,232,133 PDP: 308,056 SDP: 150
3,210,422 1,628,865 1,619,185 63,712
Kebbi          
Kogi AAC: 250 ADC: 4,369 ADP: 499 APC: 285,894 PDP: 218,207 SDP: 2,226 1,640,449 570,773 553,496 32,480
Kwara AAC: 401

ADC: 456

ADP: 203

APC: 308,984

PDP: 138,184

SDP: 212

 

1,401 895 489,482 486,254 26,578
Lagos AAC: 8,910 ADC: 2,915 ADP: 1,262 APC: 580,825 PDP: 448,015 SDP: 770 6,313,507 1,196,490 1,156,590 67,023
Nasarawa AAC: 75

ADC: 339 ADP: 107 APC: 289,903 PDP: 283,847 SDP: 359

1,509,481 613,720 599,399 18,621
Niger AAC: 324 ADC: 588 ADP: 2,582 APC: 612,371 PDP: 218,052 SDP: 239 2,375,568 911,964 896,976 45,039
Ogun AAC: 3,196 ADC: 25,283 ADP: 7,705 APC: 281,762 PDP: 194,655 SDP: 1,374 2,336,887 613,397 605,938 41,682
Ondo AAC: 4,414 ADC: 6,296 ADP: 1,005 APC: 241,769 PDP: 275,901 SDP: 1,618 1,812,567 598,586 586,827 30,833
Osun AAC: 1,022 ADC: 1,525 ADP: 9,057 APC: 347,634 PDP: 337,377 SDP: 259 1,674,729 732,984 731,882 17,200
Oyo AAC: 4,041 ADC: 40,830 ADP: 25,384 APC: 365,229 PDP: 366,690 SDP: 766 2,796,542 905,007 891,080 54,549
Plateau AAC: 268 ADC: 590 ADP: 1,395 APC: 468,555 PDP: 548,665 SDP: 599 2,423,381 1,074,042 1,062,862 28,009
Rivers          
Sokoto          
Taraba AAC: 116

ADC: 211

ADP: 136

APC: 324,906 PDP: 374,743 SDP: 862

1,777,105 756,111 741,564 28,687
Yobe AAC: 137 ADC: 162 ADP: 107 APC: 497,914 PDP: 50,763 SDP: 180 1,365,913 601,059 586,137 26,772
Zamfara          

 

 

Stears Business are doing a wonderful job of tracking the results live here.

You can also follow the results live on Channels TV.

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Over 86% of PVCs Collected – #NigeriaDecides


PVCs

With only 2 days left to Nigeria’s next presidential election this Saturday, the Independent National Electoral Commission has confirmed that 72.7 million of the 84 million Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) have been collected by voters.

One trend in the PVC collected data that helps President Buhari is that the north-west (where he is from) has an extraordinarily high rate of PVC collection. 98% of voters in his home state of Katsina have collected their PVCs. 11 of the 15 states where more than 90% of PVCs have been collected are in the north. That is good news for Buhari.

You can see a state by state breakdown of the number of registered voters and collected PVCs in each state of Nigeria below:

 

INEC collected PVCs

#NigeriaDecides – What is at Stake?


This is my latest article in Foreign Policy regarding Nigeria’s upcoming election:

Nigeria Is Headed for Dramatic Changes No Matter Who Wins
The issue of restructuring the country’s delicate federal system has long been a taboo. Both candidates have now put it front and center, ensuring that reforms are on the way.

 

By Max Siollun

 

On Feb. 16, Nigerians will go to the polls for a presidential election. At stake is not only who will be president but also fundamental issues about the structure of the Nigerian state and relations between its constituent units. Who should control the country’s oil resources and security forces? In which areas should the federal and state governments have preeminence over each other? These previously taboo questions have been elevated as key topics on the national political agenda. Regardless of who wins, President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress and his main opposition rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, have opened the door to political forces they cannot control or stop.

 

At first glance Buhari and Atiku (as he is known in Nigeria) appear to be opposites. Buhari is austere, tough on corruption, and lacking in flair. The euphoria that greeted his election victory nearly four years ago has dissipated, and some say his antiquated fiscal approach has contributed to economic stagnation. Last year, former President Olusegun Obasanjo (who remains a vital kingmaker despite leaving power nearly 12 years ago) told Buhari to “dismount from the horse” and retire from politics.

 

Atiku is a gregarious multibillionaire businessman and veteran politician who is seen as business-savvy and has promised economic liberalization, but he has been dogged by corruption allegations. It seems that voters can have a fight against corruption or economic stimulus, but not both. But there is a third and more serious issue bubbling beneath the surface.

 

Similar levels of support for the two main candidates have made the election result too close to call. Since both men are ethnic Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria, neither can resort to pandering based on ethno-regional or religious sentiment to take votes away from the other, as is frequently the case in Nigerian elections. Due to Nigeria’s gentleman’s agreement to rotate the presidency between the country’s north and south, there is not much southern ferment against the regional origin of the two leading candidates, with the expectation that the south will have its turn in power next time.

 

Yet between the candidates, the pressure to secure a decisive advantage has changed the political narrative and forced both Buhari and Atiku to address uncomfortable existential questions about Nigeria that were delicately circumvented by past governments. For the past 20 years since Nigeria returned to democracy, the country has been stuck with a highly centralized federal structure bequeathed to it by past military governments. This structure gives the federal government huge power over states, control of the country’s oil deposits and security forces, and the power to declare a state of emergency in any state whether or not that state consents. Rather than being reservoirs for local interests, Nigeria’s states are consequently little more than conduits for the implementation of federal government policies.

 

Atiku has described Nigeria’s current political system as “unworkable” and has advocated “devolution of powers and resources to states and local governments” and greater autonomy for states. To combat the insecurity that has led to the military being deployed in at least 32 of Nigeria’s 36 states, he also supports allowing Nigeria’s states to form their own police forces to reinforce Nigeria’s currently federally controlled military and police forces. Buhari is a conservative and has rejected a political restructuring of Nigeria.

 

Such proposals will reverberate at both ends of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring Nigeria’s unusual federal system has been a big talking point for the last three decades. However, regional autonomy is a potentially explosive issue in a country that fought a civil war from 1967 to 1970 and sacrificed over 1 million of its citizens to prevent one of its southern regions from seceding, and in which just three of the country’s 36 states today produce 75 percent of the country’s oil and over 50 percent of government revenues. Those revenues, derived from the oil-producing states in the country’s south, are shared between all of Nigeria’s states and the federal government. The oil-producing states currently receive 13 percent of oil revenues derived from their lands, but if they claw back a greater share of those revenues, many states that aren’t oil-producing would be pushed into extreme poverty. Indeed, only eight of Nigeria’s states are thought to be economically viable enough to survive without financial allocations from oil revenue.

 

Atiku’s proposals will delight many younger and southern Nigerians who have campaigned for such measures for three decades, hoping that it will allow Nigeria’s oil-producing states to have a greater say over and share of the profits from the oil drilled from their lands. However the proposals seem radical coming from a northern Muslim such as Atiku, who comes from the part of the country that has traditionally resisted southern-inspired changes to Nigeria’s political order. Historically, many northerners feared that such changes to Nigeria’s constitutional order would reduce the poorer northern states’ share of lucrative revenues from the oil fields in Nigeria’s south. The chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, Ango Abdullahi, claimed that some have “personalized restructuring with a view to targeting a section of the country, and this is the area that we feel very sensitive about, and we will resist it.”

 

Yet the north also has its own reasons to support Atiku’s restructuring ideas. Many complain that Nigeria’s police and soldiers (who are recruited from all over the country under a quota system) are disadvantaged in their fight against the militants of Boko Haram because most of them are not from the northeast where the insurgency emerged, are not familiar with the terrain, and don’t speak the local Kanuri language of the region, thereby making it difficult for them to win the trust of locals and obtain intelligence from them. Some argue that troops should be locals with knowledge of the local language, terrain, and customs.

 

Localization of the security forces has already been occurring slowly, albeit unofficially and without constitutional backing. Nigeria’s Constitution recognizes only those security forces that are established by the federal government and forbids states from creating their own police forces. Yet some states have allowed militia to exist in a legal twilight zone alongside the constitutionally recognized military and police forces.

 

Some of the military’s successes against Boko Haram have been due to the assistance given to them by a militia of local volunteers called the Civilian Joint Task Force. Using their local knowledge, the group has provided vital intelligence to the military, set up security checkpoints, arrested or executed Boko Haram members, and even assisted the military during raids. Twelve states in Nigeria’s north operate under Sharia. Some of these states created enforcement corps known as Hisbah to police their legal code. Several years ago, some southern states also allowed vigilante groups to apprehend armed robbers.

 

Critics pointed out that some of the vigilantes spent as much time eliminating political rivals of their state governor as they did fighting criminals. These local ethno-cultural and religious differences demonstrate the challenges of allowing local communities to create their own security forces. In one part of the country they may be used to fight insurgents, to enforce a theocracy in another, or as political thugs in another. In a country with deep sectarian cleavages such as Nigeria, legislating different legal regimes for these groups would be impossible without accusations of ethnic, geographic, or religious bias. Thanks to Buhari and Atiku’s candor these are no longer academic debates but immediate real-life problems that Nigeria’s next government must confront.

 

If Buhari holds on to power, he will be under pressure to respond to these thorny issues. If Atiku wins, the electorate will expect him to deliver on his campaign promises. Even if neither man intends to touch the restructuring time bomb, the issues they have raised are likely to be picked up by whoever contests the next election.

 

They have unwittingly elevated the restructuring issue to such a high level on the national agenda that they are likely to remain campaign issues even for the next election in 2023, when a younger candidate from the south is almost certain to become president.

 

In Nigeria, younger politicians are far more likely than their conservative elders to implement massive reforms. No matter what Buhari and Atiku do, a southern successor is far more likely than them to push for radical changes to Nigeria’s structure. And that means four years from now Nigeria may have a president with the motivation to not only espouse reforms, but implement them, too.

 

https://twitter.com/maxsiollun

Max Siollun is a Nigerian historian and the author of the books Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976 and Soldiers of Fortune: a History of Nigeria (1983-1993). Follow him on Twitter: @maxsiollun

 

 

#NigeriaDecides – Buhari and Atiku Have Opened Door to Political Forces They Can’t Control or Stop –


This is my latest article in Foreign Policy regarding Nigeria’s upcoming election:

Nigeria Is Headed for Dramatic Changes No Matter Who Wins
The issue of restructuring the country’s delicate federal system has long been a taboo. Both candidates have now put it front and center, ensuring that reforms are on the way.

 

By Max Siollun

 

On Feb. 16, Nigerians will go to the polls for a presidential election. At stake is not only who will be president but also fundamental issues about the structure of the Nigerian state and relations between its constituent units. Who should control the country’s oil resources and security forces? In which areas should the federal and state governments have preeminence over each other? These previously taboo questions have been elevated as key topics on the national political agenda. Regardless of who wins, President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress and his main opposition rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, have opened the door to political forces they cannot control or stop.

 

At first glance Buhari and Atiku (as he is known in Nigeria) appear to be opposites. Buhari is austere, tough on corruption, and lacking in flair. The euphoria that greeted his election victory nearly four years ago has dissipated, and some say his antiquated fiscal approach has contributed to economic stagnation. Last year, former President Olusegun Obasanjo (who remains a vital kingmaker despite leaving power nearly 12 years ago) told Buhari to “dismount from the horse” and retire from politics.

 

Atiku is a gregarious multibillionaire businessman and veteran politician who is seen as business-savvy and has promised economic liberalization, but he has been dogged by corruption allegations. It seems that voters can have a fight against corruption or economic stimulus, but not both. But there is a third and more serious issue bubbling beneath the surface.

 

Similar levels of support for the two main candidates have made the election result too close to call. Since both men are ethnic Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria, neither can resort to pandering based on ethno-regional or religious sentiment to take votes away from the other, as is frequently the case in Nigerian elections. Due to Nigeria’s gentleman’s agreement to rotate the presidency between the country’s north and south, there is not much southern ferment against the regional origin of the two leading candidates, with the expectation that the south will have its turn in power next time.

 

Yet between the candidates, the pressure to secure a decisive advantage has changed the political narrative and forced both Buhari and Atiku to address uncomfortable existential questions about Nigeria that were delicately circumvented by past governments. For the past 20 years since Nigeria returned to democracy, the country has been stuck with a highly centralized federal structure bequeathed to it by past military governments. This structure gives the federal government huge power over states, control of the country’s oil deposits and security forces, and the power to declare a state of emergency in any state whether or not that state consents. Rather than being reservoirs for local interests, Nigeria’s states are consequently little more than conduits for the implementation of federal government policies.

 

Atiku has described Nigeria’s current political system as “unworkable” and has advocated “devolution of powers and resources to states and local governments” and greater autonomy for states. To combat the insecurity that has led to the military being deployed in at least 32 of Nigeria’s 36 states, he also supports allowing Nigeria’s states to form their own police forces to reinforce Nigeria’s currently federally controlled military and police forces. Buhari is a conservative and has rejected a political restructuring of Nigeria.

 

Such proposals will reverberate at both ends of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring Nigeria’s unusual federal system has been a big talking point for the last three decades. However, regional autonomy is a potentially explosive issue in a country that fought a civil war from 1967 to 1970 and sacrificed over 1 million of its citizens to prevent one of its southern regions from seceding, and in which just three of the country’s 36 states today produce 75 percent of the country’s oil and over 50 percent of government revenues. Those revenues, derived from the oil-producing states in the country’s south, are shared between all of Nigeria’s states and the federal government. The oil-producing states currently receive 13 percent of oil revenues derived from their lands, but if they claw back a greater share of those revenues, many states that aren’t oil-producing would be pushed into extreme poverty. Indeed, only eight of Nigeria’s states are thought to be economically viable enough to survive without financial allocations from oil revenue.

 

Atiku’s proposals will delight many younger and southern Nigerians who have campaigned for such measures for three decades, hoping that it will allow Nigeria’s oil-producing states to have a greater say over and share of the profits from the oil drilled from their lands. However the proposals seem radical coming from a northern Muslim such as Atiku, who comes from the part of the country that has traditionally resisted southern-inspired changes to Nigeria’s political order. Historically, many northerners feared that such changes to Nigeria’s constitutional order would reduce the poorer northern states’ share of lucrative revenues from the oil fields in Nigeria’s south. The chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, Ango Abdullahi, claimed that some have “personalized restructuring with a view to targeting a section of the country, and this is the area that we feel very sensitive about, and we will resist it.”

 

Yet the north also has its own reasons to support Atiku’s restructuring ideas. Many complain that Nigeria’s police and soldiers (who are recruited from all over the country under a quota system) are disadvantaged in their fight against the militants of Boko Haram because most of them are not from the northeast where the insurgency emerged, are not familiar with the terrain, and don’t speak the local Kanuri language of the region, thereby making it difficult for them to win the trust of locals and obtain intelligence from them. Some argue that troops should be locals with knowledge of the local language, terrain, and customs.

 

Localization of the security forces has already been occurring slowly, albeit unofficially and without constitutional backing. Nigeria’s Constitution recognizes only those security forces that are established by the federal government and forbids states from creating their own police forces. Yet some states have allowed militia to exist in a legal twilight zone alongside the constitutionally recognized military and police forces.

 

Some of the military’s successes against Boko Haram have been due to the assistance given to them by a militia of local volunteers called the Civilian Joint Task Force. Using their local knowledge, the group has provided vital intelligence to the military, set up security checkpoints, arrested or executed Boko Haram members, and even assisted the military during raids. Twelve states in Nigeria’s north operate under Sharia. Some of these states created enforcement corps known as Hisbah to police their legal code. Several years ago, some southern states also allowed vigilante groups to apprehend armed robbers.

 

Critics pointed out that some of the vigilantes spent as much time eliminating political rivals of their state governor as they did fighting criminals. These local ethno-cultural and religious differences demonstrate the challenges of allowing local communities to create their own security forces. In one part of the country they may be used to fight insurgents, to enforce a theocracy in another, or as political thugs in another. In a country with deep sectarian cleavages such as Nigeria, legislating different legal regimes for these groups would be impossible without accusations of ethnic, geographic, or religious bias. Thanks to Buhari and Atiku’s candor these are no longer academic debates but immediate real-life problems that Nigeria’s next government must confront.

 

If Buhari holds on to power, he will be under pressure to respond to these thorny issues. If Atiku wins, the electorate will expect him to deliver on his campaign promises. Even if neither man intends to touch the restructuring time bomb, the issues they have raised are likely to be picked up by whoever contests the next election.

 

They have unwittingly elevated the restructuring issue to such a high level on the national agenda that they are likely to remain campaign issues even for the next election in 2023, when a younger candidate from the south is almost certain to become president.

 

In Nigeria, younger politicians are far more likely than their conservative elders to implement massive reforms. No matter what Buhari and Atiku do, a southern successor is far more likely than them to push for radical changes to Nigeria’s structure. And that means four years from now Nigeria may have a president with the motivation to not only espouse reforms, but implement them, too.

 

https://twitter.com/maxsiollun

Max Siollun is a Nigerian historian and the author of the books Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976 and Soldiers of Fortune: a History of Nigeria (1983-1993). Follow him on Twitter: @maxsiollun

 

 

#Nigeria’s 2019 Elections – Everything You Need to Know: #NigeriaDecides2019


nigeria-decides-voting-inec-the-trent-elections-795x510

#Nigeria’s next presidential election is only 5 days away. As usual the political temperature has reached boiling point and everyone thinks the entire future of the entire country is at stake. Rather than focus on one aspect of the election, I have compiled below, a compendium of the major issues surrounding the election.

The Key Contenders

Bloomberg has published a comparison of President Buhari and his main challenger Atiku Abubakar. It presents the election as a binary choice between “A Former Dictator or Alleged Kleptocrat“.

Registered Voters

Voters and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) -@inecnigeria. There are over 84 million registered voters. The distribution of voters s likely to give President Buhari a slight advantage. The north-west (where Buhari hails from) has over 20 million registered voters, and the south-west (where the Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo is from) has over16 million registered voters. In a country like Nigeria where voters often vote on ethno-regional lines, the fact that 42% of registered voters are located in the regions where the president and vice-president are from will be crucial. This article by Idayat Hassan (@hassanidayat) provides a very good summary of the key issues and demographics.

The Role of Women

The UN has published an article lamenting the depressingly low-level of female representation in Nigerian politics. Nigeria has never had en elected female president or state governor. Only 5 of the 73 presidential candidates are women. There are only 7 women in the 109 member Senate, and only 22 of Nigeria’s 360 federal House of Representatives members are women.

The Godfathers

Nigerian elections are not just about those who context for elected office. So called “godfathers” are the unseen hands that sponsor candidates, dictate hands from behind the scenes, and influence the country’s political trajectory. The former Governor of Taraba State Reverend Jolly Nyame, once said: “Whether you like it or not, as a godfather you will not be a governor, you will not be a president, but you can make a governor, you can make a president.”

Further Election Coverage

The BBC’s Africa and Nigeria coverage is usually first class. They have put together a good page on Nigeria’s election here.

Twitter: @maxsiollun

 

 

 

The 31 Presidential Candidates for #Nigeria’s 2019 Election – #NigeriaDecides2019


Courtesy of Vanguard newspaper.

President Muhammadu Buhari – All Progressives Congress, APC

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar – Peoples Democratic Party, PDP

Donald Duke – Social Democratic Party, SDP

Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim – Alliance for New Nigeria, ANN

Mr. Omoyele Sowore – African Action Congress, AAC

(Mrs) Obi Ezekwesili – Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, ACPN

Dr. Obadiah Mailafia – African Democratic Congress, ADC

Prof Kingsley Moghalu – Young Progressive Party, YPP

Pastor Chris Okotie – Fresh Democratic Party, FDP

Major Hamza Al-Mustapha (retired) Peoples Party of Nigeria, PPN

Habib Mohammed Gajo – Young Democratic Party, YDP

Olusegun Mimiko – Zenith Labour Party, ZLP

Major General John Gbor – All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA

Ali Soyode – YES Party

Davidson Isibor Akhimien – Grassroots Development Party of Nigeria, GDPN

Ike Keke – New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP

Apostle Sunday Chukwu-Eguzolugo – Justice Must Prevail Party, JMPP

(Mrs) Eunice Atuejide – National Interest Party, NIP

Hamisu Santuraki – Mega Party of Nigeria, MPN

Edozie Madu – Independent Democrat Party, IDP

Professor Peter Nwangwu – We the People of Nigeria Party, WPNP

Ahmed Bee Buhari – Sustainable National Party, SNP

Tope Fasua – Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party, ANRP

Ade Fagbenro Bryon – KOWA Party

Moses Shipi – All Blending Party, ABP

Yahaya Ndu – African Renaissance Party, ARP

Chuks Nwachukwu – All Grassroots Alliance. AGA

Pastor Habu Aminchi – Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM

Yabagi Yusuf Sani – Action democratic Party, ADP

Babatunde Ademola – Nigeria Community Movement Party, NCMP

Martin Onovo – Conference of Nigerian Political Parties, CNPP

 

#Nigeria’s January 15, 1966 Coup: 50 Years Later


nzeogwu

Today is the 50th anniversary of Nigeria’s first military coup. Rather than rehash it I have included video clips and audio interviews below with the key participants that will tell you all you need to know about it.

BBC interview with coup participant Captain Ben Gbulie:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01pgpz4

Interview with coup participant Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu:

Major-General Aguiyi-Ironsi’s first press conference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTK4t2HxEkU&list=PLTCNM3JtW0Ukwz47bhjpSRpN1tm_L7FLu&index=5

President Azikiwe speaks about the coup:

https://www.facebook.com/157457414278806/videos/1853976352865/

Prime Minister Balewa’s corpse found: https://www.facebook.com/157457414278806/videos/1853738186911/

20 years in Nigeria: 1960-1979:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YwzBzEWhSk&list=PLTCNM3JtW0Ukwz47bhjpSRpN1tm_L7FLu&index=17

Ironsi’s funeral: https://www.facebook.com/157457414278806/videos/1100564156634789/


https://twitter.com/maxsiollun

Professor Attahiru Jega: “Positive Things Will be Said About Jonathan’s Government”


The outgoing Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Professor Attehiru Jega was recently a guest of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC. During a talk attended by Jega’s INEC Commissioners and Nigeria’s Ambassador to the United States of America Ambassador Adebowale Ibidapo Adefuye, Jega gave a very eye opening talk about Nigeria’s election landscape and the recently concluded 2015 elections.

Electoral Laws

Jega said that Nigeria’s electoral laws caused operational problems for INEC. If a presidential election is inconclusive with no clear winner, the Nigerian constitution requires a second run-off election to take place within 7 days of the original election. Prior to the election INEC had recommended that this provision of the constitution should be amended. In other countries the average time to prepare for a run-off is 6 weeks. Jega described the possibility of organizing a run off election in 7 days as “impossible”. A run-off could have caused “a constitutional crisis”. He said he prayed the election would not go to a run off!

INEC did what it could to prepare for the eventuality of a run-off; printing extra ballot papers just in case. Because of fear of being challenged in court, INEC printed extra run-off ballot papers for all parties (even though the law requires that the run-off should take place between only the two top parties).

INEC Key Steps

Giving semblance of impartiality.

Planning

Learning

Building key partnerships

The permanent voter cards (PVCs) that voters used to vote were made in China.

INEC met quarterly with party chairmen and representatives. Meetings became monthly in the run up to the election.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s Government

Jega said that “Time will come when positive things will be said about Jonathan’s government” – in terms of allowing INEC to be independent. Jega said none of the electoral malpractice or attempts to affect INEC’s independence could be attributed to Jonathan or the government in particular.

Election Postponement

The postponement of the presidential election from February to April allowed INEC more time to train more staff and allowed more people to collect their PVCs and vote. As at February 28, tens of millions of PVCs had not been collected.

In February INEC and Jega were invited to the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) Lt-Colonel Sambo Dasuki for a meeting. The meeting was also attended by the military service chiefs Air Chief Marshal Alex Sabundu Badeh (Chief of Defence Staff), Lt-General Kenneth Tobiah Minimah (Chief of Army Staff),  Air Marshall Adesola Amosu (Chief of Air Staff), Vice-Admiral Usman Jibrin (Chief of Naval Staff),  and the Inspector-General of Police Solomon Arase.

INEC were told that there were compelling reasons to postpone the election. The security chiefs told INEC there was “a window of opportunity” to fight Boko Haram and that their energies would be focused on that fight around the time the election was scheduled. They said that for the first time Nigeria’s neighbors Chad, Cameroon, and Niger were pressing Nigeria to join a Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF); whereas in the past it was Nigeria that was pressing them to join a military coalition, and they foot dragged.The security officers said that joint action against Boko Haram would rob it of the ability to flee for respite to Nigeria’s neighbours. The security chiefs said that the time was opportune because the military had just taken delivery of military weaponry they had ordered before. In conclusion the armed forces could not provide their customary level of security support for this election.

INEC were taken by surprise. Their position was that they were ready for the elections to go ahead as scheduled. INEC asked the service chiefs to undertake consultations and build consensus for their recommendations.

The following day the NSA Dasuki went to Chatham House and recommended a six-week postponement of the election; without consulting INEC. https://maxsiollun.wordpress.com/2015/01/26/nigeria-national-security-adviser-not-very-optimistic-about-chibok-girls/ In the words of Jega “we were shocked” by Dasuki’s speech and candor at Chatham House. Although Dasuki’s Chatham House speech took INEC by surprise, INEC could not publicly contradict the NSA.

The following week Jega and INEC were summoned to a National Council of States (NCS) meeting (also attended by the service chiefs) at which Jega briefed the NCS and told them about the situation (INEC was ready to go ahead with the election as scheduled, but had received security advice to the contrary). Jega also received a letter from the NSA Dasuki (signed by the Chief of Defence Staff Badeh) reiterating the earlier security advice given to INEC. The service chiefs and the NSA reiterated to the NCS that they could not provide security guarantees for the election.

The decision on whether to postpone was deferred to INEC since it was INEC that had the legal mandate to schedule the election. Jega said the discussion at the NCS “took a partisan divide” (with some parties for and against postponement depending on their assessment of whether or not it would benefit them).

INEC called a meeting of its commissioners. Jega considered the safety of its electoral staff and said he “would not put the lives of over 750,000 election workers at risk” by ignoring the security advice. INEC did not want to be blamed for bloodshed if it ignored the security advice and lives were lost. Postponement also offered INEC a silver lining by allowing more people to collect their PVCs and vote, giving them more preparation time, and offered the potential for a genuine and peaceful elections to take place in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States which had been wracked by the Boko Haram insurgency and which were so insecure that it was difficult to envisage how elections could take place in those states.

As at February, INEC had produced 68.95 million out of 69 million PVCs that were supposed to be produced. 67% of people had collected their PVCs. By the time the election took place 56 million PVCs had been collected out of a total of 69 million PVCs (81% of PVCs were collected).

Rivers State

INEC received petition to cancel Rivers State election results on the grounds that fake result sheets were being distributed and that no elections took place at all in certain polling units. Jega said these claims “were spurious”. INEC sent a three man team of its national commissioners to Rivers State to investigate. The commissioners were there for 12 hours and refuted the petition’s allegations.

Orubebe

The “Orubebe incident was unfortunate”. Jega said he has no evidence of further conspiracy regarding Orubebe’s outburst. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/uk-nigeria-election-exclusive-idUKKBN0N71KO20150416

All Jega said is that he “Hope we learned lessons from that and move on…statesmen should be statesmen…we need more role models”.

Jega said Nigerians should not spend so much time in euphoria of the election success, but should also focus on maintaining standards and preventing regression. Said Nigerians “shouldn’t just sit back and gloat about a wonderful election”.

INEC used NYSC cadets as ad-hoc staff. NYSC and security staff did not get to vote because of their election day duties. Jega said they had tried (after 2011 election) to arrange for ad-hoc staff to vote but INEC did not get around to implementing it. Jega said perhaps essential election staff could vote 1 day or 1 week in advance of the public.

Technology

INEC piloted an electronic results system in 2011 – using the governorship election in Rivers State as its test case. INEC worried that technology failure or manipulation would taint the election. Result technology had failed in Kenya. INEC felt they already had too much on their hands with the introduction of PVCs and biometric readers. He also said that using an electronic counting system required trust in the technology, and faith it would not be manipulated. Jega said that level of trust does not yet exist in Nigeria’s political system, and that the possibility of technology being manipulated or corrupted, led INEC to count results manually.

Jega gave credit to Jonathan’s government for giving INEC approval and money to implement PVCs and electronic card readers.

A Retired General is Sworn in as #Nigeria’s President


https://www.facebook.com/157457414278806/videos/vb.157457414278806/987892781235261/?type=1&theater

Amazing how history repeats. Sixteen years ago a retired general was sworn in as Nigeria’s president and vowed to fight corruption. He vowed:

“The beneficiaries of corruption…will fight back with all the foul means at their disposal…There will be no sacred cows. Nobody, no matter who and where, will be allowed to get away with the breach of the law or the perpetration of corruption…”

#NigeriaDecides: Nigeria’s New First Lady: Aisha Buhari



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qh71mpSot8

  • She is related to Nigeria’s late Minister of Defence Muhammadu Ribadu.
  • She describes her upbringing as that of “a normal northern girl”.
  • She used the word “indomitable” to describe herself.
  • She comes from “a learned family” with 4 or 5 professors in the family.
  • Education-wise she has an NCE (National Certificate in Education), bachelors degree in Public Administration from the Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria, a masters degree in International Affairs and Strategic Studies from the Nigerian Defence Academy in Kaduna, and a Diploma in Beauty Therapy,